Winning With WinPicks
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A. Winning With WinPicks
The WinPicks software is a powerful handicapping tool. When used for legal gambling, it can give you the winner's edge by providing you with a wealth of information that the average gambler simply doesn't have. But as with any tool, you need to know how to use WinPicks wisely. This section includes a tutorial on sports wagering and some handicapping tips, and will help you get the most out of WinPicks.
This section covers the following topics:
- A.1 - Wagering Against the Line
- A.2 - The Purpose of the Line
- A.3 - Wagering on the Total (Over/Unders)
- A.4 - Beating the Line
- A.5 - Pro Football Handicapping
- A.6 - College Football Handicapping
- A.7 - Pro Basketball Handicapping
- Pro Hockey Handicapping
- A.8 - How WinPicks Produces a Line
- A.9 - Measuring the Success of a Formula
- A.10 - Checking Trends
- A.11 - The Bottom Line
Wagering Against the Line
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.1. Wagering Against the Line
When you place a wager on a football or basketball game you have to consider the line (also called the point spread or spread). For example, let's look at a college football game between Notre Dame and Navy. If both teams have an equally good chance to win, you could take a piece of paper, write Notre Dame on one side and Navy on the other, and draw a line right down the middle. The paper might look like this:
Since the line is exactly in the middle of the paper, it means that the two teams are considered to be even and that each team has an equally good chance to win. This is called a pick-em. Of course, college football fans know that Notre Dame and Navy play each other nearly every season, and Notre Dame almost always wins (although Navy ended a 43 game losing streak against Notre Dame with a triple overtime win in 2008!). Due to the past history of the series, it seems highly probable that Notre Dame will win again this time. Therefore, if the game was a pick-em, everyone would take Notre Dame. The oddsmakers don't want that to happen. They want some people to take Navy even if they think Navy will lose, and so they compensate by moving the line towards Notre Dame and away from Navy:
In the above example, the line was moved 28 points to the left of center. This means that if you wager on Notre Dame, they need to win by more than 28 points in order for you to collect your money. The notation for this wager is Notre Dame (-28). Even if Notre Dame wins by 31-7, you lose. Why? Because when you take 28 points away from Notre Dame, the score becomes 7-3 in favor of Navy. The notation for a wager on Navy is Navy (+28). They need to win or lose by 27 points or less in order for you to win your wager. If the outcome of the game falls right on the line (Notre Dame wins by 28), the game is a push and the wager is off. Often, the line is set on a half-point (27.5, for example) to eliminate the possibility of a push.
The type of wager we have just described is the most common type of sports wager. Some gamblers refer to this type of wagering as playing sides, since you simply choose a side (either Notre Dame or Navy in our example). The 28 points in our example is called the line, point spread, or simply the spread. A pick-em has a point spread of 0. Notre Dame is the favorite, and Navy is the underdog, or dog. If you play the favorite you lay points, if you play the dog, you take points. If Notre Dame wins by more than 28, or if Navy loses by less than 28, you can say that they covered the point spread.
The Purpose of the Line
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.2. The Purpose of the Line
The purpose of the line is to make both teams look equally attractive to the gambling public. Perhaps no one would take Navy as a pick-em against Notre Dame, but Navy might look attractive to many bettors if they get Navy plus 28 points. The opening line is set by oddsmakers who try to gauge the public's opinion of the game and who want to make both sides look equally attractive. They want to balance their book, or in other words, make sure that they receive an equal amount of money on both sides of the line. The reason for this is simple -- oddsmakers don't like to gamble! If their book is balanced, they can't lose since they get to keep about 4.5% of the total amount of money wagered. If their book isn't balanced, they're gambling just like the public, and there is a good chance they could lose.
If too much money is wagered on one side of the line, the oddsmaker moves the line to encourage gamblers to take the other side. For example, if too few gamblers take Navy at +28, the line might move to +29 to make Navy look more attractive. Money moves the line. If the line is moving further and further away from Navy, you'll know that most of the money is being wagered on Notre Dame. During the week before a game, the line might constantly move. For example, it may go from 28 to 29, back to 28.5, and so on. However, the opening line seldom differs from the closing line by more than 2 or 3 points.
Sometimes it cannot be avoided, but oddsmakers try to avoid moving the line too far in the same direction. If they do, they may be middled, which means they'll have to pay out money on both sides of the line. To illustrate this, lets look at a hypothetical situation where the line on the Notre Dame-Navy game opens at Notre Dame (-27). The majority of the gambling public feels that Notre Dame will win by more than 27 points, so nearly all of the money is being wagered on Notre Dame. To entice gamblers to put money on Navy, the line keeps moving away from Navy. By kickoff, the line is Notre Dame (-32), meaning that the opening line moved by a full 5 points. Notre Dame winds up winning by a score of 40-10. This puts the sportsbook in the unenviable position of having to pay all of the gamblers who took Notre Dame and laid from 27 to 29.5 points earlier in the week, and to also to pay the gamblers who took Navy plus 30.5 to 32 points later in the week. Some gamblers may have wagered on Notre Dame early in the week and Navy later in the week and won both wagers. This is what it means to be middled. Normally a sportsbook only has to pay the people on one side of the line. In this case, they have to pay out money on both sides of the line. To avoid this situation, oddsmakers try to make the opening line as sharp, or accurate, as possible so that line movement can be kept to a minimum.
In some cases, large sums of money will unexpectedly show up on one side of the line. This isn't supposed to happen, because the oddsmakers have a lot of experience and they have set a line that (in their opinion) makes each team look equally attractive to the gambling public. Therefore, when nearly all of the money is being wagered on the same team it is sometimes referred to as unnatural money. When a sportsbook detects the presence of unnatural money, they may elect to investigate (or at least ask around) and see where the money is coming from. While they investigate, they may take the game off the board and refuse to accept further wagers. In other cases, injuries to key players or an unusual situation surrounding a team will force a game to go temporarily off the board.
As it turns out, the sportsbook industry has years of experience setting lines, and have developed an excellent feel for how the public will wager. To most people the line seems like it's about right. Normally, about half of the gamblers will like one team, and about half will like the other team. The money will usually start to fall fairly evenly on both sides of the line, which is exactly what the sportsbooks want. If the oddsmakers have done a good job of gauging the public opinion of a game and have set a good line, everything else takes care of itself. Not much line movement is necessary, the book stays balanced, and the sportsbook collects about 4.5% of the action regardless of who wins or loses. Although sports gambling has more favorable odds than almost all other forms of gambling, the odds are still against the player.
Knowing that the odds are against you, can you still beat the line? Sure. Many gamblers routinely beat the line. The key is learning as much as you can about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two competing teams. Respect the public's perception of a game, but don't assume that it is always accurate. Do your homework and form your own opinions. The single most important thing to remember about handicapping is:
The line is based on the public's perception of the game, and not on the relative strength of the two teams.
Wagering on the Total (Over/Unders)
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.3. Wagering on the Total (Over/Unders)
Another popular type of wager is called an over/under. Interestingly enough, the over/under player isn't concerned about the point spread or with who is expected to win the game. None of that matters. Instead, this type of wager is based on predicting the total number of points to be scored in a game by both teams. The line on such a wager is called the totals line.
To illustrate how the totals line works, lets go back to our Notre Dame-Navy example and state that the totals line is 47 points. You can wager on either the over or the under. If you play the under, you are expecting the teams to score a combined total of more than 47 points. If the combined score goes above 47, you'll win. For example, if the score is 49-0, 38-21, or 28-27, the over players win. If the combined score is 46 points or less, the under players win. If it lands on 47 (27-20, for example) the game is a push and the wager is off. Like the point spread, the totals line is often set on a half point (47.5, for example) to eliminate the possibility of a push.
Beating the Line
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.4. Beating the Line
One of the first questions asked by prospective gamblers is "How often do you have to win to make money?" Well, as we mentioned earlier, the book gets a percentage of every wager. This percentage is called the vig (short for vigorish) or the juice. The vig is usually 10%. All gamblers have to pay the vig, but the winners get it back. To illustrate this, consider that anyone who makes a $10 wager has to give $11 to the book. Winners are paid $21. This $21 consists of the return of the original $10 wager, the return of the $1 vig, and the $10 that the winner just won. In contrast, if you lose you're out $11, since the book keeps the $10 wager and the $1 vig. If the number of winners and losers are equal, the book keeps $1 out of every $22 wagered, or the 4.5% that we mentioned earlier.
Every sports bettor should know that, due to the vig, you need to win more than 50% of the time to break even. For example, if you made a hundred $10 wagers, and won half of them you would lose $50. You would win only $500 (50 x 10) and lose $550 (50 x 11). The winning percentage you need to break even is 52.4%, which happens to be 11 out of 21.
Beating the line more than 52.4% of the time is harder than it sounds. You have probably seen advertisements or web sites where tout services claim an against the spread (ATS) record of 70% or higher. Many thousands of customers have fallen for these exaggerated claims. Don't believe it. Every gambler has a hot streak once in a while, but experienced handicappers know that a 70% winning percentage is impossible to maintain over long periods of time. If you consistently hit in the 55% to 60% range, you'll outperform nearly all of the tout services. Every year, the organizations that monitor touts services report that many hit less than 50%, or worse than they would do by flipping a coin. Far less than half of the tout services reach the 52.4% required to break even. And these services can be expensive, some touts charge thousands of dollars per season for their selections! When you factor in their fees, turning a profit becomes even less likely.
The plain truth is that the oddsmakers know their business. They normally set a sharp, accurate line, and beating it consistently requires a lot of work. However, WinPicks can greatly improve your chances since it does nearly all of the work for you. The majority of WinPicks customers routinely beat the point spread. In the following sections we'll discuss how to tap the power of WinPicks when wagering on pro football, college football, pro basketball, college basketball, and pro hockey.
Pro Football Handicapping
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.5. Pro Football Handicapping
WinPicks is versatile enough to implement almost any NFL handicapping method. Developing a method requires two things: deciding how many weeks of stats to use, and deciding which prediction formula to use.
Pro football handicappers often debate about the number of weeks of data to use. It's tempting to go back as far as possible (particularly to look for trends), but it is not always wise. Teams go up and down from season to season. Part of this is because the NFL gives last year's division winners the most difficult schedules the following season. This makes it difficult for them to repeat as champions. Teams that finish last in their division are usually given an easier schedule, which often means they turn things around the following season. Another key factor is free agency. It has become common for a team to change from 30% to 50% of their players between seasons. Some say that this makes it more difficult to be a fan, and it obviously makes it more difficult to be a handicapper.
To accurately handicap the NFL, you need to use a sample of games that reflects the way a team is playing now. For this reason, WinPicks lets you use a rolling average that only looks at a team's most recent games. Most handicappers use a rolling average from the last 3 to 8 games, or else use the season-to-date totals.
Before choosing a prediction formula, we hope you try to create your own. We supply several formulas with WinPicks that have worked well in past seasons, but your own formulas might do better. The ANALYZE option lets you instantly test any formula to see how well it works. When you create a formula, you should put most of the emphasis on the major stats like points scored, points per 100 yards, total yards, winning percentage, and so on. Stats like field goal percentage and yards per punt are usually less important. If you use them at all, assign them a low weight.
If you use Forge, the formula designer on the ADD-INS menu, it does the formula design work for you. It automatically builds a complete formula by selecting the stats to use, and then computing the optimum percentage weights to assign to each stat. Another outstanding feature of WinPicks is the Formula Tuner, which can fine tune your formulas to produce the very best results.
College Football Handicapping
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.6. College Football Handicapping
College football handicapping with WinPicks is similar in many respects to pro football handicapping. As with pro football, you need to decide how many weeks of stats to use, and which prediction formula to use. However, since college football is a different game than pro football, the size of the database you use may be different, and the contents of prediction formulas are very different.
When choosing a database, remember that the turnover rate among college players is high. Most teams lose about half of their starters from the previous season to graduation. For this reason, many college handicappers prefer a season-to-date database that uses games from the current season only. This type of database might not work well early in the season, but generally improves as the season goes on. Other handicappers prefer a rolling average of 4 to 8 games, to accurately reflect how a team is playing now.
Before choosing a prediction formula, try creating your own. We supply several formulas that have worked well in past seasons, but your own formulas might do better. The ANALYZE option lets you instantly test any formula to see how well it works. Unlike pro football formulas which are based on actual game statistics, college football formulas are based on home field advantage, margin of victory, and the relative strength of the conferences.
Having a good understanding of the relative strength of the conferences is the key to successful college football handicapping. Although people talk about parity in college football, it doesn't really exist. There is actually a large disparity between the strengths of the various conferences and teams. The large number of teams makes this disparity statistically unavoidable. With about four times as many NCAA Division-1 teams as NFL or NBA teams, there is a huge top-to-bottom difference in the quality of teams that doesn't exist in pro sports. In pro football, a 40 point victory over any team probably means a team is prety good. In college football, a 40 point victory over a Big 10 team is meaningful, but a 40 point victory over a Sunbelt Conference team may not mean anything at all to a team from a major conference. In fact, many a Division-1 team has scored a 30 or 40 point victory in non-conference play, and went on to win only 2 or 3 games all season.
When creating college football formulas, it is often wise to use the first week or two of the season to get a good feel for how the conferences are stacking up so you can assign an accurate value to each conference. You'll probably find that the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, and PAC-12 are going to be much stronger than the Sunbelt, Conference USA, and MAC. It's also wise to use the Formula Tuner to optimize your formulas so that they produce the best possible results.
You should also be aware that college lines can be much larger than pro lines. Pro football lines of larger than 17 points are extremely rare. On the other hand, Nebraska was favored by more than 30 points 54 times from 1985-1999. On four occasions, they were favored by more than 50 points! For many handicappers, the big lines represent a real opportunity. When the oddsmakers have to set lines ranging from 0 to 50 points, instead of 0 to 17 points, they are more likely to make a mistake. This is one reason why many gamblers believe that college football is easier to "beat" than pro football.
Pro Basketball Handicapping
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.7. Pro Basketball Handicapping
Pro basketball handicapping also requires deciding how many games of stats to use, and which prediction formula to use. The number of games you use should be large enough to include a good mixture of road and home games, but small enough to reflect how well teams are playing now. Many handicappers prefer a rolling average of from 10 to 15 games. Since the 82-game NBA schedule is so long and grueling, you can divide the season of many teams into several "mini-seasons" where the quality of their play varies considerably. The intensity level of a team varies, and since the teams are only allowed to have 12 players on their active roster, injuries influence the NBA results far more than they do in football. A 10 to 15 game roll seems to capture the essence of these "mini-seasons" well. Using a balanced rolling average (based on a equal number of home and road games) often seems to improve the results.
As with our football products, we supply three pro basketball prediction formulas that have worked well in past seasons. However, we suggest that you try creating your own formulas and testing them with the ANALYZE option to see how well they work. The pro basketball prediction formulas are based on rest and weariness factors. NBA teams travel extensively, and the home team has a distinct advantage. Teams that have been playing at home for several games often play extremely well, whereas teams may start to falter towards the end of a long road trip. The WinPicks formulas allow you to add or subtract points from a teams power ranking, based on the number of consecutive home or road games a team has played. We suggest using the Formula Tuner to optimize the formulas that you create so that they produce the best possible results.
As everyone knows, the home team has a distinct advantage in the NBA, perhaps more so than in any other sport. In some instances, it seems nearly impossible for the weaker teams in the NBA to win on the road, or for the top teams to lose at home. Since the gambling public is aware of this fact, however, a strong home court advantage is already factored into the line. In fact, the line often exaggerates the dominance of the home team. You'll find that bad teams often cover on the road, even if they seldom win. For this reason, you'll get the best results with formulas that show respect for the home court advantage, without giving it undue emphasis.
Pro Hockey Handicapping
Pro Hockey Analyst is the newest member of the WinPicks family, and hockey differs from the other four sports in ways that matter to a handicapper.
The puck line is not a point spread. Almost every game is priced at 1.5 goals, so the spread carries very little information and the money line carries nearly all of it. Where in football you would ask whether a team covers, in hockey you are usually asking whether it wins outright at a price. Pro Hockey Analyst's straight-up record is therefore the number to watch, and its net units figure matters more than its percentage: winning 45% of your bets at plus money is a good season.
Scoring is low and variance is high. A hockey game turns on two or three goals. A run of results that would take half a football season to accumulate can happen in a fortnight, which makes a small sample even less trustworthy here than elsewhere. Insist on more games before believing a record, and lean on the drawdown and run columns in Trend Finder rather than the headline.
Rest and travel are real. Back-to-back games, and the second night of one in particular, are worth more in hockey than in any other sport WinPicks covers - a tired goaltender is a different team. The rest filter in Trend Finder is the tool for measuring this on your own data rather than taking it on faith.
Home ice is worth less than home field. The home advantage parameter in a hockey formula is smaller than its football equivalent, and tuning will generally find that for you. If a hockey formula wants a large home advantage, be suspicious of it.
A newer engine, on by default. Pro Hockey Analyst is the first package to run WinPicks' second-generation engine. Rather than weighting statistics into a projected spread, it models goal scoring directly and produces a win probability for each game, so its native market is the money line, and its formulas carry three values rather than thirty-six weights (see Creating Formulas with Pro Hockey Analyst, in section 8.2). You use it exactly as you use the others: the Predict screens, Analyze and the Tuner all read it.
Data coverage. Pro Hockey Analyst carries scores, lines, totals and money lines with per-bookmaker prices, on the same terms as the other four packages. It does not carry a box score: the twenty statistical categories described in section 7.3 are Pro Football Analyst only.
How WinPicks Produces a Line
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.8. How WinPicks Produces a Line
After you select a database and a formula, WinPicks produces its own line based on the relative strength of the two teams. As we mentioned earlier, the actual line is based on public perception of the game. The key to successful handicapping is to find meaningful differences between the public perception of the game, and the actual strength of the teams involved in the game. In other words, if you can out think the public, you can beat the line.
You can look for these differences by adjusting a formula's betting window. For example, if you set the window from 1 to 7 points, the formula recommends picks when the actual line differs from the WinPicks line by 1 to 7 points. If you increase the size of the window, the formula recommends more picks. If you decrease the size of the window, the formula recommends fewer picks.
WinPicks might do a poor job picking games if the difference between the actual line and the WinPicks line is too large. If a formula disagrees with the oddsmakers by a large amount, it might be overlooking some non-statistical factor that is influencing the line. Or, it might be relying too much on unimportant statistics. The best picks are often close to the actual line, but still provide the slight edge needed to win.
Measuring the Success of a Formula
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.9. Measuring the Success of a Formula
There are two ways to measure the success of a formula. The first way is to track its straight-up record (SUR). The SUR is the percentage of winners a formula picks without considering the point spread. Over the course of a season, an SUR of 65% to 70% or higher is very good for either pro football or pro basketball. In college football and college basketball, where one-sided games are common, many formulas will have an SUR of 70% to 75%, because just picking the winner is often not difficult. A high SUR (65% to 70% for pro football or basketball, 70% to 75% for college football or basketball) should make you competitive in nearly any contest you enter. Formulas with a high SUR are great for football contests, office pools, and parlay cards.
Of course, gamblers are more interested in a formula's winning percentage against the spread (ATS). It's important to remember that formulas with a high SUR often don't do well ATS, and vice versa. The ATS rules are the same for football and basketball, and the same for sides or totals. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%, so the gap between a losing formula and a winning one is far narrower than it looks, and a couple of points either side of that line is the whole game. Judge a formula on its out-of-sample record rather than the record it posted on the games it was fitted to - a training figure always flatters, and the holdout column beside it is the one that has to stand up.
Even the best formulas have bad weeks (and the bad ones have good weeks), so don't get too depressed or excited about a bad or good week. Always stay focused on turning a profit, and look for formulas that beat the line over long periods of time.
Checking Trends
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.10. Checking Trends
After you find a successful formula, you may want to use SITUATION ANALYSIS or TEAM HISTORY to check the recommended picks. For example, your formula might pick a certain team to cover as a road underdog against a divisional opponent. When you check the team's history, you might find that they seldom cover the line in this situation. Or, your formula might pick a team that is clearly superior "on paper", but has a history of playing poorly against this week's opponent. To make you aware of these situations, routinely checking trends is often a good idea. You can then qualify your formula's picks by checking to see if they agree with the trends.
A pick based on sound statistical information that agrees with the trends is usually a solid play. Of course, it won't always be right. However, in the long run you can usually do quite well by combining a good formula with some trend analysis.
Finding trends is a popular pastime among handicappers, perhaps the most popular pastime of all. Many handicappers, perhaps the majority, base all of their selections on trends. If you choose to go this route, the WinPicks software is probably the most powerful tool you can buy, since it includes a trend engine that lets you study a game from nearly every conceivable angle. There are also dozens of articles published each year that uncover "hidden" trends with incredibly high winning percentages, and trend information is routinely discussed by radio and television talk show hosts and play-by-play announcers. While it is certainly possible to profit from staying on top of existing trends, it is usually not wise to handicap using only trend information. Here are several reasons why:
Few pro teams have a distinct personality - Pro football and basketball are big business, and this means that there is high turnover among the players and coaches. Owners are always trying to shake up the team to win more games or save more money, and even the ownership is subject to change. A team may still have only a few (if any) of the players that played for them three years ago, in fact, entire NBA rosters have changed in one year. Also, many head coaches only last from one to three years before getting fired. Why should any organization with this much change follow trends? Our experience shows that college football teams seems to follow trends more closely even though their players can only play for four years. The reason is that many college football teams have a distinct personality imprinted on them by their coach and the amount of emphasis placed on football by the university. Also, there are many well-known rivalries in college football that the schools, players, and fans take very seriously. As college fans know, the atmosphere at these games is very similar from year to year. Few such rivalries exist in pro sports.
Once a trend is discovered, the oddsmakers will often prevent you from playing it - Since so many handicappers look for trends, the oddsmakers look for them, too. For example, one of the best known trends in pro football is to take Kansas City as a home dog (29-10-3 ATS, 74.4%, from 1985-2007). The trend was so strong from 1985-1991 that the oddsmakers decided not to let gamblers play it. Although they had many seasons without a strong team, the Chiefs were a home dog only 17 times, or about once per year on average, from 1992-2007 (going 8-7-2 ATS). Because so many people were waiting to take Kansas City as a home dog, the oddsmakers usually made them a home favorite instead, robbing this once strong trend of most of its value. By 2008, however, when the Chiefs had hit rock bottom, the oddsmakers no longer feared this trend, and the Chiefs were underdogs in seven of their eight home games. The Chiefs won only one of the seven games, and went 3-4 ATS.
Strong trends carry a high price, and the value goes away - Many gamblers refer to the line as the price, much as an investor refers to the price of a stock. And as stock players know, the stocks most likely to make money often have the highest price. The trick is knowing when something is overpriced, or too expensive to remain a good value. For example, during their Super Bowl years with Joe Montana, the San Francisco 49ers were an excellent road team that routinely covered the line. However, since the oddsmakers knew this, they kept raising the price, favoring them by more and more points every week until they were no longer a good value. During their championship years with Michael Jordan, the Chicago Bulls were considered so invincible that they were routinely a 15 to 18 point favorite and yet still covered over 60% of the time, often winning by 20 to 30 points. However, late in the year once they had clinched the division title and started "resting" for the playoffs, they were unable to meet the high expectations of the gambling public. There is always a point where the price is too high for the risk involved, and all trends eventually turn around and go the other way.
The key factor when doing trend handicapping is to try and find a trend before everyone else knows about it. Then, profit from it while it lasts. Remember, it doesn't help to know what everyone else knows, you have to know something that other gamblers don't. As we stated earlier, trends are best used as support for your statistical analysis. We recommend handicapping with formulas, and then checking each recommended pick to see if it agrees with the trends.
The Bottom Line
WinPicks Reference Manual Appendix A.11. The Bottom Line
The WinPicks software includes a powerful set of handicapping tools that have been refined over a number of years. These tools can greatly improve your chances of being a winner, but they are not a substitute for common sense. Please remember that statistics and trends aren't the only factors involved when handicapping sports, and never forget that there is no such thing as a "lock". If you use WinPicks wisely, you'll find that sports handicapping is both an entertaining and a profitable pastime.