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Using SureLock

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WinPicks Reference Manual Section 11. Using SureLock

The SureLock Formula Wizard was an automatic formula designer included with Pro Football Analyst: you told it how many weeks of data to use and whether you wanted a Sides or a Totals formula, and it chose the statistics and computed the weights itself, using ridge regression to correlate each stat with actual game results.

WinPicks 2.0 replaces SureLock with Forge, found on the same ADD-INS menu. Forge does the same job - designing a complete formula rather than adjusting one that exists - and adds the safeguard SureLock lacked: it fits a formula on the earlier games and scores it on games the fit never saw, so the record it reports is not the record of the data it trained on. SureLock reported its record from the same games it was built on, which is why its formulas often looked better on the day they were made than they did the following week.

Forge is described in Forge: Designing a Formula from a Question, in section 8. A formula Forge produces is an ordinary formula file, analysed and tuned like any other.

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