WinPicks Reference Manual
Section 8.8. Predicting Totals (Over/Unders)
TOTALS is used to handicap the total (or over/under) odds for a game. When you select TOTALS from the PREDICT menu, a screen appears like the one shown in Figure 8.80.
Figure 8.80 - Predicting Totals (PFA)
The PREDICT TOTALS screen is divided into eight columns:
- Visitor Team - This is the visitor, or road team.
- Home Team - This column lists the home team, or the site where the game will be played. The game site could be a very important piece of information when handicapping over/unders for college or pro football. If the game will be played in an outdoor stadium in a city expecting bad weather (Chicago in December, for example) it could mean a low score.
- Over/Under Line - This is the number you wager against. It is the point total the oddsmakers have predicted for the game.
- Predicted Total - This is the point total that WinPicks is predicting for the game, based on the prediction formula currently in use.
- Recommend - This is the pick that WinPicks is recommending. OVER means play the over. UNDER means play the under. If nothing appears in this column, WinPicks has no recommendation for the game.
- Actual Total - If the game has already been played, this column shows the total number of points scored in the game.
- Result - If the game has been played, this column tells you if WinPicks made the right recommendation on the game. WON means that WinPicks was right. LOST means that WinPicks was wrong.
- Details - Click here to see details of how WinPicks made its prediction.
Like ATS predictions, over/under picks are made using the stats included in the prediction formula. However, when picking over/unders, WinPicks doesn't try to analyze matchups to determine who has the stronger team or who is more likely to win. Instead, it tries to determine the collective strength of both teams. It determines the collective strength by computing the sum of both team's offensive rankings minus the sum of both team's defensive rankings. This value is scaled by the point spread multiplier in the same manner as for ATS picks. The result is then added to the overall league average for total points scored in each game. By adding in the league average, the over/under prediction is indexed to actual results for all games in the database.
Sound confusing? One simple way to look at it is this: If the two competing teams have good offenses and weak defenses, WinPicks will predict a high point total. Two teams with good defenses and weak offenses will result in a low predicted point total. Once a prediction is made, WinPicks compares the projected over/under to the actual over/under using the betting window discussed in Section 8.2. If the projected over/under is within the betting window, WinPicks will recommend that you play the OVER or UNDER.
